Wallet digest

active

Activity score

51/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-2.0K

Realised

$-501.46

Win rate

54%

200 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET
10 shares @ 90.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026
$0.00
$-9.01
DOWN
XRP Up or Down - March 30, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET
10 shares @ 73.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026
$0.00
$-7.31
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET
10 shares @ 83.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026
$0.00
$-8.38
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET
10 shares @ 75.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026
$0.00
$-7.58
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET
10 shares @ 74.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026
$0.00
$-7.49
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET
10 shares @ 73.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026
$0.00
$-7.31
DOWN
Solana Up or Down - April 4, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET
10 shares @ 74.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026
$0.00
$-7.49
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET
10 shares @ 77.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026
$0.00
$-7.76
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET
10 shares @ 77.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026
$0.00
$-7.76
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET
10 shares @ 75.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026
$0.00
$-7.58

Recent activity

TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - April 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET$7.70Apr 10, 14:43 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET$7.30Apr 10, 14:41 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET$7.10Apr 10, 14:40 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - April 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET$8.30Apr 10, 14:40 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - April 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET$9.89Apr 10, 14:35 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - April 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET$9.83Apr 10, 14:35 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - April 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET$9.80Apr 10, 14:35 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET$9.91Apr 10, 14:20 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - April 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET$8.50Apr 10, 14:12 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - April 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET$7.70Apr 10, 14:12 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET$7.20Apr 10, 14:12 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET$8.80Apr 10, 14:10 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - April 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET$9.87Apr 10, 13:41 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - April 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET$9.93Apr 10, 13:41 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - April 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET$9.84Apr 10, 13:41 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET$9.83Apr 10, 13:41 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - April 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$9.64Apr 10, 13:26 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - April 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$9.89Apr 10, 13:26 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$9.83Apr 10, 13:26 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - April 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET$8.20Apr 10, 13:25 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

58/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

54% win rate over 200 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

27 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

200 closed markets, 54% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity36 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry34 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk27 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 27
Avg trade size: $6.47
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Apr 10, 11:40 UTC
Last active: Apr 10, 14:43 UTC
Win rate sample: 200 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 20:26:24 UTC·src:Polymarket Data