Thoughtful-Belt-Smog
0x3f320a70d5cf016a2b701d3c22e27f045a4fb299
Wallet digest
Activity score
31/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
67
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-27.6K
Realised
$-3.0K
Win rate
1%
67 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 67- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET
156552 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-3.3K
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET
15000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026$0.00
$-150.00
- YES
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
14636 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-658.54
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET
11952 shares @ 21.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-2.5K
- YES
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
10070 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-30.20
- YES
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
8689 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-112.95
- YES
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
6447 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-45.12
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET
5880 shares @ 20.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.2K
- YES
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
5033 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-45.30
- YES
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
3713 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-44.56
Recent activity
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET$9.23Aug 22, 10:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET$20.33Aug 22, 10:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET$20.27Aug 22, 10:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET$20.27Aug 22, 10:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET$20.31Aug 22, 10:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET$20.32Aug 22, 10:25 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET$63.02Aug 22, 10:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET$20.21Aug 22, 10:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET$20.26Aug 22, 10:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET$12.17Aug 22, 10:05 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET$44.92Aug 22, 10:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET$20.15Aug 22, 09:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET$20.15Aug 22, 09:47 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET$67.80Aug 22, 09:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET$20.57Aug 22, 09:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET$20.57Aug 22, 09:38 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET$57.97Aug 22, 09:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET$20.43Aug 22, 09:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET$20.43Aug 22, 09:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET$20.28Aug 22, 09:08 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
1% win rate over 67 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 31/100.
67 closed markets, 1% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $24.23
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 11, 18:47 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 22, 10:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 67 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.