Overlooked-Paw
0x3f4858e364b74ae5d7b2629bad1bcdea4bb40490
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
45
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-151.41
Realised
$3.84
Win rate
60%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 45- YES
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05–1.10ºC in July 2025?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
Will the US strike Somalia next?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Trump say "Hell" 4+ times during Cabinet Meeting on December 2?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 2, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Trump say "Unbelievable" or "Fantastic" or "Incredible" 10+ times during Panthers visit?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Trudeau resign Today?
792 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2025$0.00
$-0.79
- NO
Trump deploys National Guard in D.C. by Monday?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31?
380 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.52
- YES
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
144 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by February 28, 2026?$2.00Feb 9, 20:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$2.00Feb 9, 20:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?$54.60Feb 6, 11:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$3.50Jan 30, 08:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January?$58.10Jan 26, 14:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January?$57.61Jan 26, 09:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January?$57.61Jan 26, 08:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January?$44.65Jan 26, 06:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US strike Somalia next?$1.00Jan 25, 20:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS government shutdown Saturday?$11.50Jan 25, 09:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alex Honnold not complete a free solo of Taipei 101 by January 31?$1.34Jan 24, 09:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in less than 1 hour?$0.32Jan 23, 07:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in less than 1 hour?$0.61Jan 23, 07:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 22?$0.23Jan 22, 15:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call?$1.00Jan 21, 08:22 UTC
- TRADESELLTrove FDV above $5M one day after launch?$9.32Jan 19, 20:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrove FDV above $5M one day after launch?$2.42Jan 19, 20:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday?$1.00Jan 19, 18:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$32.87Jan 18, 21:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$20.00Jan 18, 16:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $22.36
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 16, 11:29 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 9, 20:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.