Thin-Theory
0x3f540d9a09f36aa37121935a24555125d78936ae
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
18
Open notional
$17.30
Total PnL
$-0.70
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- NO
Will Donald Trump say "Please" 7+ times during Syria President events on November 10?
2 shares @ 53.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 10, 2025$1.89
$0.89
- NO
Will Donald Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 12+ times during Syria President events on November 10?
2 shares @ 58.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 10, 2025$1.72
$0.72
- DOWN
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on November 10?
1 shares @ 76.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 10, 2025$1.32
$0.32
- YES
Will “The Witcher: Season 4” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 11 2025)
1 shares @ 80.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 11, 2025$1.25
$0.25
- YES
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in October 2025?
1 shares @ 81.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 11, 2025$1.23
$0.23
- UP
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on November 10?
1 shares @ 82.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 10, 2025$1.22
$0.22
- NO
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in October 2025?
1 shares @ 85.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 11, 2025$1.18
$0.18
- NO
Will “Nobody Wants This: Season 2” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 11 2025)
1 shares @ 86.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 11, 2025$1.16
$0.16
- UP
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on November 10?
1 shares @ 89.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 10, 2025$1.12
$0.12
- YES
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in October 2025 (LS)?
1 shares @ 92.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 10, 2025$1.09
$0.09
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYAirbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on November 10?$1.00Nov 10, 16:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 10?$1.00Nov 10, 16:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetflix (NFLX) Up or Down on November 10?$1.00Nov 10, 16:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYMeta (META) Up or Down on November 10?$1.00Nov 10, 16:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYAmazon (AMZN) Up or Down on November 10?$1.00Nov 10, 16:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicrosoft (MSFT) Up or Down on November 10?$1.00Nov 10, 16:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYApple (AAPL) Up or Down on November 10?$1.00Nov 10, 16:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill “The Witcher: Season 4” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 11 2025)$1.00Nov 10, 16:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill “Nobody Wants This: Season 2” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 11 2025)$1.00Nov 10, 16:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in October 2025?$1.00Nov 10, 16:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in October 2025?$1.00Nov 10, 16:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Luther (Kendrick Lamar and SZA) be nominated for Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?$1.00Nov 10, 16:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on November 9?$1.01Nov 10, 16:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on November 9?$1.01Nov 10, 16:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November 9?$1.10Nov 10, 16:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 9?$1.25Nov 10, 16:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on November 9?$1.25Nov 10, 16:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on November 9?$1.32Nov 10, 16:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November 9?$1.47Nov 10, 16:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on November 9?$1.82Nov 10, 16:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $1.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 6, 17:15 UTC
- Last active
- Nov 10, 16:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.