0x3f5aac8b6a4137f3f881b65474acf9c73efff31d
0x3f5aac8b6a4137f3f881b65474acf9c73efff31d
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
29
Open notional
$41.92
Total PnL
$-1.92
Realised
$0.06
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 29- YES
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in July?
18 shares @ 34.9¢·now 28.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$5.22
$-1.17
- YES
Will anyone say "Kingdom" during House of the Dragon E4 S3?
5 shares @ 44.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$4.06
$1.92
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?
8 shares @ 38.1¢·now 29.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$2.48
$-0.72
- NO
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 49.0 and 49.9 in July?
2 shares @ 96.2¢·now 89.8¢·exp Aug 3, 2026$2.19
$-0.16
- YES
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?
11 shares @ 18.5¢·now 19.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.16
$0.06
- NO
Will Trump say "Swan" in July?
2 shares @ 96.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.12
$-0.06
- YES
Amazon 2026 capex above $220B?
3 shares @ 59.2¢·now 59.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$1.80
$0.01
- NO
Will anyone say "Rick" 20+ times during Rick and Morty E8 S9?
6 shares @ 18.0¢·now 22.5¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$1.32
$0.26
- YES
Will Trump say "State of the Art" in July?
2 shares @ 56.0¢·now 67.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.29
$0.22
- NO
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 9, 2026?
2 shares @ 64.0¢·now 73.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.25
$0.17
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill "Disruptive" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?$2.35Jul 11, 07:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Cancer" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?$1.15Jul 11, 06:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Canada" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?$2.37Jul 11, 05:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 49.0 and 49.9 in July?$0.72Jul 11, 04:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 49.0 and 49.9 in July?$1.10Jul 11, 04:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 49.0 and 49.9 in July?$1.10Jul 11, 04:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 49.0 and 49.9 in July?$1.10Jul 11, 04:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netflix say "Subscriber" during earnings call?$1.10Jul 11, 04:19 UTC
- REDEEMNew York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5$0.00Jul 11, 04:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill anyone say "Love" or "Lover" during Love Island E35?$1.10Jul 11, 04:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill JPMorgan say "Risk" during earnings call?$1.10Jul 11, 04:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bank of America say "Invest" or "Investment" 5+ times during earnings call?$1.10Jul 11, 04:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bank of America say "Growth" 5+ times during earnings call?$1.10Jul 11, 03:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYCoca-Cola (KO) Q2 organic revenue (non-GAAP) growth 8%+?$1.10Jul 11, 03:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYCoca-Cola (KO) Q2 organic revenue (non-GAAP) growth <3.5%?$1.11Jul 11, 03:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Canada" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?$1.10Jul 11, 02:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Disruptive" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?$1.10Jul 11, 02:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Cancer" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?$1.10Jul 11, 02:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Canada" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?$1.10Jul 11, 02:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Disruptive" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?$1.10Jul 11, 02:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $1.55
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 10, 20:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 11, 07:41 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.