Wallet digest

active

Activity score

44/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-4.6K

Realised

$-317.21

Win rate

34%

71 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET
1160 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026
$0.00
$-16.85
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7PM ET
1013 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026
$0.00
$-9.71
OVER
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 5.5
661 shares @ 8.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026
$0.00
$-54.00
OVER
Girona FC vs. Elche CF: O/U 5.5
497 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026
$0.00
$-39.78
SPURS
Spurs vs. Thunder
375 shares @ 31.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026
$0.00
$-118.27
KNICKS
Spread: Knicks (-14.5)
262 shares @ 17.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026
$0.00
$-45.78
ADITYA BALSEKAR
Bengaluru 3: Hamish Stewart vs Aditya Balsekar
223 shares @ 7.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026
$0.00
$-16.00
OVER
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 5.5
209 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026
$0.00
$-8.96
OVER
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 2.5
167 shares @ 38.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026
$0.00
$-63.56
NO
Will Auckland FC win on 2026-05-23?
163 shares @ 22.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026
$0.00
$-36.59

Recent activity

REDEEMWill Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?$0.01Jun 18, 01:17 UTC
REDEEMWill Panama win on 2026-06-17?$0.00Jun 18, 01:17 UTC
REDEEMWill England vs. Croatia end in a draw?$0.01Jun 17, 22:14 UTC
REDEEMWill Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?$0.01Jun 17, 06:20 UTC
REDEEMSpread: France (-2.5)$0.00Jun 16, 21:16 UTC
REDEEMSpread: New Zealand (-2.5)$0.00Jun 16, 03:15 UTC
REDEEMWill Morocco win on 2026-06-13?$0.00Jun 14, 02:07 UTC
REDEEMWill United States win on 2026-06-12?$0.00Jun 13, 05:49 UTC
REDEEMWill Canada win on 2026-06-12?$0.01Jun 12, 23:00 UTC
REDEEMWill Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?$0.01Jun 12, 05:58 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6PM ET$0.00Jun 1, 02:49 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET$0.38Jun 1, 02:03 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET$0.20Jun 1, 02:02 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET$1.77Jun 1, 02:02 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET$1.59Jun 1, 02:02 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 31, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET$1.65Jun 1, 02:01 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 31, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET$1.40Jun 1, 02:01 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 31, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET$1.57Jun 1, 02:00 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET$3.04Jun 1, 02:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET$1.69Jun 1, 01:56 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

64/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

34% win rate over 71 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 23/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

71 closed markets, 34% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity39 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry62 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk23 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 35
Avg trade size: $1.73
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 1, 01:25 UTC
Last active: Jun 18, 01:17 UTC
Win rate sample: 71 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 10:06:49 UTC·src:Polymarket Data