Overlooked-Pendulum
0x3f7fdfd011d92e59eae4b7290e26e96c0be8eac2
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
10
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-24.31
Realised
$-1.05
Win rate
0%
6 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
525 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.26
- NO
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?
156 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
98 shares @ 6.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- NO
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 6, 2026?
46 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?
33 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?
19 shares @ 15.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- CONOR MCGREGOR
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)
14 shares @ 29.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?
13 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will DR Congo win on 2026-07-01?
6 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)$4.14Jul 11, 16:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$6.28Jul 10, 21:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.30Jul 3, 22:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.67Jul 3, 22:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill DR Congo win on 2026-07-01?$1.02Jul 1, 16:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.05Jul 1, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.03Jul 1, 10:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.26Jul 1, 10:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?$1.03Jun 18, 03:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.37Jun 18, 03:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?$1.03Jun 13, 01:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?$2.04Jun 1, 15:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.03Jun 1, 15:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$5.14Jun 1, 01:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 6, 2026?$1.00Apr 6, 00:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?$0.10Apr 6, 00:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 5, 2026?$0.00Apr 6, 00:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 5, 2026?$0.00Apr 6, 00:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 5, 2026?$1.00Apr 4, 14:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?$4.00Feb 6, 02:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $4.05
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 21, 10:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 11, 16:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.