False-Cytokine
0x3f936896a5c9737d294840534990f5799d482c07
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
20
Open notional
$218.79
Total PnL
$-965.86
Realised
$-20.82
Win rate
0%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- YES
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?
102 shares @ 97.9¢·now 96.5¢·exp Aug 26, 2026$98.62
$-1.38
- NO
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in August?
62 shares @ 81.0¢·now 99.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$61.08
$11.08
- NO
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?
303 shares @ 33.0¢·now 19.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$59.09
$-40.91
- NO
Will Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?
327 shares @ 61.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-200.00
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June?
208 shares @ 48.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June?
143 shares @ 69.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- NO
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in August?
106 shares @ 94.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will Qualcomm (QCOM) beat quarterly earnings?
104 shares @ 96.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- UP
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 20?
89 shares @ 56.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- ODDIK
Counter-Strike: QUINTESSÊNCIA vs ODDIK (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Playoffs
72 shares @ 69.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?$100.10Aug 18, 05:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?$50.02Aug 18, 05:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?$192.31Aug 17, 22:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum reach $1,900 in August?$313.93Aug 17, 03:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?$102.68Aug 15, 23:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,700 in August?$50.66Aug 15, 23:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,200 in August?$100.42Aug 15, 23:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $1,900 in August?$300.93Aug 15, 23:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in August?$210.84Aug 10, 15:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?$101.92Aug 10, 12:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in August?$200.41Aug 10, 12:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in August?$65.70Aug 7, 23:54 UTC
- REDEEMCounter-Strike: Imperial vs ALKA (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group Stage$53.57Aug 6, 01:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: Imperial vs ALKA (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group Stage$30.66Aug 5, 22:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: QUINTESSÊNCIA vs ODDIK (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Playoffs$50.76Aug 5, 22:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: Blue Otter vs Winthrop University (BO3) - North American Challengers League Group Stage$50.39Aug 5, 22:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill eBay (EBAY) beat quarterly earnings?$106.38Aug 5, 22:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $65,000 in August?$417.91Aug 5, 20:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 in August?$37.04Aug 5, 14:17 UTC
- REDEEMWashington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies$20.81Aug 5, 01:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $58.92
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 1, 18:42 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 05:27 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.