Shameful-Analogy
0x3fbdf342250edf6246391774b1a9a943f0b41760
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
4
Open notional
$4.84
Total PnL
$-9.02
Realised
$-7.35
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Michael J. Fox – “Shrinking” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a comedy series?
4 shares @ 3.0¢·now 40.8¢·exp Sep 14, 2026$1.76
$1.63
- NO
Will "World Cup" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?
7 shares @ 26.0¢·now 23.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$1.64
$-0.21
- NO
Colorado passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access?
3 shares @ 34.0¢·now 47.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.44
$0.41
- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?
7 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-3.50
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill "World Cup" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?$0.53Jul 12, 05:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "World Cup" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?$2.39Jul 12, 05:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "World Cup" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?$2.39Jul 12, 05:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "World Cup" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?$4.87Jul 12, 05:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Netflix say "World Cup" during earnings call?$7.08Jul 12, 04:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netflix say "World Cup" during earnings call?$14.52Jul 12, 04:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Ornn H200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on December 31, 2026?$0.09Jul 12, 02:21 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.79Jul 12, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn H200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on December 31, 2026?$0.14Jul 12, 00:40 UTC
- REWARD$257.27Jul 12, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 28?$2.40Jul 11, 23:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 28?$2.40Jul 11, 23:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the announcers say "Blood," "Bloody," or "Bloodied" during Benoit Saint-Denis vs Paddy Pimblett?$4.94Jul 11, 23:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the announcers say "Blood," "Bloody," or "Bloodied" during Benoit Saint-Denis vs Paddy Pimblett?$46.72Jul 11, 23:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Left" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of July 13?$0.45Jul 11, 21:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Left" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of July 13?$11.14Jul 11, 21:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill anyone say "Wife" during Love Island E35?$0.12Jul 11, 20:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "House" be in the headlines this week?$0.35Jul 11, 20:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "House" be in the headlines this week?$11.65Jul 11, 20:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "House" be in the headlines this week?$0.46Jul 11, 20:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $9.85
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 11, 13:25 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 12, 05:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.