Granular-Term
0x400daa05716078d81dd0a475c6f21df174e4f372
Wallet digest
Activity score
38/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
22
Open notional
$2.89
Total PnL
$-72.36
Realised
$-36.84
Win rate
6%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- YES
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
114 shares @ 4.9¢·now 2.3¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$2.56
$-2.99
- YES
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 56 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
14 shares @ 7.0¢·now 2.4¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.33
$-0.63
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on March 14?
358 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-0.71
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on March 14?
139 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-0.28
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on March 14?
130 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-0.26
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,400 on March 14?
104 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-0.31
- YES
Kevin Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5
93 shares @ 5.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on March 14?
89 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-2.57
- YES
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?
83 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $2,450 on March 17?
56 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-2.21
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,450 on March 17?$2.21Mar 17, 21:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C or higher on March 16?$0.00Mar 17, 12:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Hoppers" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 26m and 29m?$0.00Mar 17, 12:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 16?$0.00Mar 17, 12:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 16?$10.53Mar 16, 11:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party hold exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?$3.04Mar 16, 08:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 16?$0.16Mar 16, 07:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill UK strike Iran by March 31?$5.00Mar 16, 06:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party hold exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?$2.50Mar 16, 06:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?$0.02Mar 16, 06:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?$0.02Mar 16, 06:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Turkey strike Iran by March 31?$2.34Mar 16, 06:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Turkey strike Iran by March 31?$2.34Mar 16, 06:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party hold exactly 56 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?$0.45Mar 16, 06:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m?$1.71Mar 16, 06:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 16?$0.18Mar 16, 05:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?$0.44Mar 16, 05:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party hold exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?$0.38Mar 16, 05:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Turkey strike Iran by March 31?$5.06Mar 16, 05:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C or higher on March 16?$0.16Mar 16, 05:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
31/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
6% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $1.37
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 16, 05:09 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 17, 21:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.