Runny-Horseradish
0x40199289501779efb304f5a8bb111437a7a8f8a7
Wallet digest
Activity score
32/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
64
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-306.26
Realised
$-0.25
Win rate
5%
62 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 64- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET
420 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$0.00
$-14.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET
133 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET
107 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$0.00
$-8.57
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET
56 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET
44 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET
40 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET
38 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?
37 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET
36 shares @ 28.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET$10.18Jul 28, 23:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$10.33Jul 28, 23:45 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET$1.05Jul 28, 23:42 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET$10.72Jul 28, 23:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET$1.05Jul 28, 23:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET$10.27Jul 28, 23:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET$4.25Jul 28, 23:30 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET$0.00Jul 28, 23:20 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET$15.15Jul 28, 23:20 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET$0.24Jul 28, 23:18 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET$4.62Jul 28, 23:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET$4.22Jul 28, 23:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET$10.24Jul 28, 23:16 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET$16.67Jul 28, 03:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET$10.28Jul 28, 03:40 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET$10.53Jul 28, 03:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET$4.09Jul 28, 03:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET$4.17Jul 28, 03:15 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET$0.70Jul 28, 00:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET$4.11Jul 28, 00:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
62/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
5% win rate over 62 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.
62 closed markets, 5% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $5.85
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 16:36 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 23:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 62 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.