0x4023f7320cfcf4f520d9c6e5038926672a36c17d
0x4023f7320cfcf4f520d9c6e5038926672a36c17d
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
13
Open notional
$21.26
Total PnL
$-68.57
Realised
$-0.10
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- NO
Will Trump say "Ukraine" or "Ukrainian" 10+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?
7 shares @ 67.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Oct 17, 2025$7.46
$2.46
- YES
Will Trump say "China" 3+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?
6 shares @ 84.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Oct 20, 2025$5.95
$0.95
- NO
Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Bigger and longer" during earnings call?
4 shares @ 76.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Oct 22, 2025$3.95
$0.95
- NO
Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Recession" during earnings call?
4 shares @ 77.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Oct 22, 2025$3.90
$0.90
- YES
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?
67 shares @ 72.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 22, 2025$0.00
$-48.55
- NO
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during October press conference?
67 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during December press conference?
35 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-1.08
- NO
Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?
19 shares @ 52.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 20, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Powell say "Trump" during October press conference?
19 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Bernie say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" 10+ times during CNN town hall on October 15?
8 shares @ 66.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 15, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Thank" or "Thanks" 20+ times at the Turkey Pardon on Tuesday?$1.10Nov 25, 00:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Rich country" or "Richest country" during Saudi PM events on November 18?$2.57Nov 25, 00:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Speedboat" this week? (October 20-26)$1.56Nov 25, 00:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Scum" this week? (October 20-26)$1.75Nov 20, 14:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Powell say "Mandate" 6+ times during October press conference?$4.76Nov 20, 14:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Government shutdown end November 4-7?$2.32Nov 20, 14:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say “Transgender” this week? (November 10 - 16)$3.60Nov 20, 14:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Peanut" this week? (October 20-26)$1.10Nov 20, 12:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (October 20-26)$5.00Nov 20, 12:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "ABC Fake News" this week? (October 20-26)$1.14Nov 20, 12:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Rich country" or "Richest country" during Saudi PM events on November 18?$1.08Nov 11, 21:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say “Transgender” this week? (November 10 - 16)$1.08Nov 11, 20:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Powell say "Good afternoon" during December press conference?$1.08Nov 11, 19:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025$2.30Nov 11, 01:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025$0.00Nov 11, 01:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Government shutdown end November 4-7?$2.00Nov 3, 13:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025$2.00Oct 31, 14:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Dog" this week? (October 20-26)$1.00Oct 22, 22:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (October 20-26)$1.00Oct 22, 22:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "ABC Fake News" this week? (October 20-26)$1.00Oct 22, 22:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $3.23
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 10, 21:31 UTC
- Last active
- Nov 25, 00:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.