Hefty-Market
0x402707003d1d72ee2de500f9dd5b74c19c38ac7f
Wallet digest
Activity score
47/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
27
Open notional
$478.71
Total PnL
$-425.17
Realised
$-18.27
Win rate
0%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- NO
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?
282 shares @ 57.0¢·now 90.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$253.99
$93.13
- NO
Fed rate hike in 2026?
234 shares @ 86.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$118.12
$-83.04
- NO
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
95 shares @ 42.0¢·now 52.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$50.14
$10.14
- NO
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
100 shares @ 51.1¢·now 50.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$50.00
$-1.10
- YES
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?
45 shares @ 45.0¢·now 9.6¢·exp Jan 10, 2026$4.31
$-15.91
- NO
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
2 shares @ 93.0¢·now 99.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.14
$0.14
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June?
270 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-7.59
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 10AM ET
250 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET
250 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.50
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 5AM ET
250 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-7.23
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Aug 19, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 18, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 16, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 13, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 12, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 11, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 10, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 9, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 8, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 7, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 6, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 5, 02:33 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 4, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 3, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 2, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 1, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 31, 00:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
4 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 4
- Avg trade size
- $26.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 6, 00:17 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 19, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.