Giving-Vintner
0x402a57aae9eccf87303aacd83965b5203ec97d68
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
19
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-33.00
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- YES
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 21, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will UCR hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 26, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Solana be above $240 on October 31?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 1, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $118,000 on November 6?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 6, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Tidjane Thiam win the 2025 Ivory Coast presidential election?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 25, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Solana be above $250 on October 16?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 16, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 1, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $126,000 on October 10?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 10, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 21?$2.02Apr 22, 10:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 20?$3.01Apr 22, 10:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on March 21?$3.01Apr 22, 10:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?$3.05Apr 22, 10:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?$3.16Apr 22, 10:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?$4.02Apr 22, 10:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?$4.02Apr 22, 10:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?$4.12Apr 22, 10:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?$5.00Apr 22, 10:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C or higher on March 20?$5.00Apr 22, 10:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?$5.00Apr 22, 10:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?$5.01Apr 22, 10:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on March 20?$5.01Apr 22, 10:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?$5.03Apr 22, 10:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 21?$0.28Mar 21, 10:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 21?$4.88Mar 21, 10:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 21?$4.07Mar 20, 13:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?$3.15Mar 20, 07:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?$5.00Mar 20, 07:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?$5.00Mar 20, 07:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $3.73
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 25, 11:06 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 22, 10:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.