Good-Natured-Polyester
0x403032d0950f33a46cebea6709d02abc348f933c
Wallet digest
Activity score
56/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
35
Open notional
$3.62
Total PnL
$-13.3K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 35- NO
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
2 shares @ 92.5¢·now 74.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.62
$-0.38
- NO
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
1 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$1.00
$0.00
- NO
Will there be 6-8 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 26, 2026$1.00
$0.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - November 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET
1000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 18, 2025$0.00
$-500.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - November 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET
1000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 18, 2025$0.00
$-500.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - November 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET
1000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 17, 2025$0.00
$-500.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - November 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET
1000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 17, 2025$0.00
$-500.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - November 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET
1000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 17, 2025$0.00
$-500.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - November 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET
1000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 17, 2025$0.00
$-500.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - November 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET
1000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 17, 2025$0.00
$-500.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMNo change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after January 2026 meeting?$1.01Jan 26, 08:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be 6-8 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?$1.00Jan 26, 08:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after January 2026 meeting?$1.00Jan 21, 07:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?$1.00Jan 15, 07:00 UTC
- REDEEMNew "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? $1.01Jan 15, 07:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 12?$1.01Jan 7, 08:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana reach $580 before 2026?$1.01Jan 7, 08:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Hollow Knight: Silksong win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?$1.03Jan 7, 08:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Zelenskyy and Putin not meet?$1.04Jan 7, 08:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill no CEO be announced in 2025?$1.04Jan 7, 08:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?$1.05Jan 7, 08:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$1.08Jan 7, 08:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?$1.08Jan 7, 08:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYNew "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? $1.00Jan 7, 08:25 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Venezuela military engagement by December 9?$1.02Dec 11, 02:53 UTC
- REDEEMFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?$2.01Dec 11, 02:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 12?$1.00Dec 11, 02:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?$1.00Dec 10, 02:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?$1.00Dec 10, 02:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?$1.00Dec 9, 06:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 25
- Avg trade size
- $120.44
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 3, 06:18 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 26, 08:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".