Prudent-Twilight
0x403bcc517029bf5755a8ce6a69cc00a62b5ed446
Wallet digest
Activity score
37/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
13
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-231.88
Realised
$-36.80
Win rate
17%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,200 and $3,300 on January 22?
202 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$0.00
$-2.62
- UP
Solana Up or Down - January 23, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET
148 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.92
- USC UPSTATE SPARTANS
USC Upstate Spartans vs. Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs
94 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 24, 2026$0.00
$-2.16
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on January 30?
93 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-3.52
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 25?
91 shares @ 27.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026$0.00
$-24.74
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on January 29?
82 shares @ 96.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 29, 2026$0.00
$-78.69
- YES
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on January 27?
78 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-3.03
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 26?
67 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 26, 2026$0.00
$-2.67
- YES
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 24?
65 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.82
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET
59 shares @ 94.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 25, 2026$0.00
$-55.47
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 21?$1.36Jun 20, 19:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 5?$2.30Jun 4, 22:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be above $90 on May 24?$1.94May 23, 16:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 25, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$55.11Apr 25, 15:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on January 24?$0.00Apr 25, 15:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of XRP be above $1.40 on April 11?$62.02Apr 17, 13:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on April 15?$1.28Apr 14, 20:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be above $1.40 on April 11?$55.82Apr 10, 19:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on March 29?$54.00Apr 10, 19:19 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - January 20, 8AM ET$0.00Mar 31, 19:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be between $130 and $140 on January 11?$0.00Mar 30, 11:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on March 29?$52.65Mar 28, 21:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be above $80 on March 27?$52.63Mar 28, 01:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be above $80 on March 27?$49.63Mar 27, 11:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 25?$1.37Mar 25, 04:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of XRP be above $1.50 on March 22?$48.35Mar 23, 16:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be above $1.50 on March 22?$0.24Mar 22, 06:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be above $1.50 on March 22?$46.08Mar 22, 01:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of XRP be above $1.50 on March 21?$43.09Mar 22, 01:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be above $1.50 on March 21?$0.09Mar 21, 09:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
17% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $27.35
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 20, 21:09 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 20, 19:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.