Fresh-Cuckoo-Derby
0x403f2471f8aaa1e8a224f1338b073bfa3fdb94f1
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$26.7K
Total PnL
$-7.9K
Realised
$-699.09
Win rate
41%
139 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.40 in August?
718 shares @ 68.8¢·now 81.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$585.30
$91.23
- NO
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in August?
598 shares @ 79.6¢·now 93.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$559.13
$83.02
- NO
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $285 in August?
503 shares @ 64.6¢·now 95.8¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$481.62
$156.68
- NO
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in August?
597 shares @ 51.0¢·now 79.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$471.63
$167.31
- NO
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $75 in August?
485 shares @ 64.4¢·now 96.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$465.36
$152.91
- NO
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $300 in August?
490 shares @ 40.4¢·now 89.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$435.79
$237.82
- NO
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.50 Week of August 17 2026?
467 shares @ 82.0¢·now 89.0¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$415.62
$32.62
- NO
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $48 in August?
417 shares @ 84.3¢·now 99.3¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$414.08
$62.75
- NO
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $72 in August?
559 shares @ 80.7¢·now 72.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$402.68
$-48.38
- NO
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $120 in August?
413 shares @ 13.5¢·now 97.1¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$401.42
$345.42
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $770 Week of August 17 2026?$12.97Aug 17, 17:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $86 Week of August 17 2026?$5.00Aug 17, 17:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 in August?$52.71Aug 17, 16:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $765 Week of August 17 2026?$5.80Aug 17, 16:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $550 Week of August 17 2026?$49.60Aug 17, 16:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $180 Week of August 17 2026?$14.34Aug 17, 16:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $252 Week of August 17 2026?$25.00Aug 17, 16:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $550 Week of August 17 2026?$81.84Aug 17, 16:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $4.00 Week of August 17 2026?$25.96Aug 17, 16:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $4.00 Week of August 17 2026?$26.46Aug 17, 16:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in August?$102.40Aug 17, 16:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $180 Week of August 17 2026?$13.52Aug 17, 16:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $765 Week of August 17 2026?$36.68Aug 17, 16:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in August?$74.01Aug 17, 16:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $155 Week of August 17 2026?$8.09Aug 17, 16:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $337.50 Week of August 17 2026?$20.97Aug 17, 16:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 Week of August 17 2026?$16.10Aug 17, 16:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,110 Week of August 17 2026?$25.53Aug 17, 16:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $180 Week of August 17 2026?$54.07Aug 17, 16:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $189 Week of August 17 2026?$17.20Aug 17, 16:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
60/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
41% win rate over 139 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.
139 closed markets, 41% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $22.73
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 17, 15:50 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 17, 17:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 139 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.