0x403f61717a77aa61320177cd991c3aa88576b886
0x403f61717a77aa61320177cd991c3aa88576b886
Wallet digest
Activity score
89/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
14
Open notional
$474.00
Total PnL
$-6.28
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2098 shares @ 11.8¢·now 11.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$249.61
$2.65
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?
122 shares @ 38.0¢·now 46.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$56.62
$10.35
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?
357 shares @ 7.4¢·now 12.4¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$44.41
$17.97
- YES
Will "People" be said 100+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of July 13?
54 shares @ 90.0¢·now 76.4¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$41.22
$-7.34
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
23 shares @ 85.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$20.88
$1.48
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
500 shares @ 8.0¢·now 3.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$16.49
$-23.49
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?
49 shares @ 37.0¢·now 32.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$15.91
$-2.20
- YES
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
12 shares @ 83.2¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.32
$-0.43
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
43 shares @ 20.3¢·now 20.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$8.65
$-0.15
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
24 shares @ 18.4¢·now 19.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.67
$0.32
Recent activity
- REDEEMEthereum above 1,780 on July 13, 7AM ET?$0.00Jul 13, 11:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum above 1,780 on July 13, 7AM ET?$4.73Jul 13, 10:57 UTC
- REDEEMIran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?$0.00Jul 13, 10:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill XRP reach $1.10 on July 13?$4.70Jul 13, 08:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?$18.93Jul 13, 03:20 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 13, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?$6.51Jul 12, 23:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill the announcers say "McGregor" 20+ times during McGregor vs Holloway?$0.00Jul 12, 10:40 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin above 64,000 on July 12, 4AM ET?$0.00Jul 12, 08:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin above 64,000 on July 12, 4AM ET?$7.96Jul 12, 07:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$255.69Jul 11, 20:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?$53.97Jul 11, 19:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the announcers say "McGregor" 20+ times during McGregor vs Holloway?$171.74Jul 11, 18:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$19.34Jul 11, 13:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?$48.85Jul 11, 05:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$39.98Jul 11, 04:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on July 10?$0.00Jul 11, 04:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on July 10?$8.40Jul 10, 19:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 64/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $23.22
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 9, 11:01 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 13, 11:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.