Ragged-Lute
0x4076c938bc92890e2401e2a163adbf770694c448
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
16
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-4.6K
Realised
$-50.84
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- NO
Energy infrastructure ceasefire in Ukraine in March?
44544 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2025$0.00
$-86.73
- YES
Was JFK assassination an inside job?
15000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2025$0.00
$-49.99
- YES
Will Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will FC København win on 2026-03-01?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Yoon reinstated as President before July?
7389 shares @ 40.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-3.0K
- NO
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
5000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by March 31?
4172 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2025$0.00
$-25.99
- YES
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)?
2000 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-8.00
- NO
Will 7-8 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's impeachment before May?
1704 shares @ 51.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-882.47
- YES
Will 3-4 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's impeachment before May?
1084 shares @ 16.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-183.65
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the US strike Iran next?$0.00Mar 4, 14:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?$2.50Mar 2, 16:40 UTC
- TRADESELLKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$2.50Mar 2, 16:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?$11.03Mar 2, 16:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hillary say "Island" during her Epstein testimony?$2.90Mar 2, 16:22 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran ceasefire by March 2?$0.71Mar 2, 16:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 2?$7.42Mar 2, 14:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 2?$76.95Mar 1, 19:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?$20.00Mar 1, 19:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by March 2?$5.00Mar 1, 19:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Antalyaspor win on 2026-03-01?$0.13Mar 1, 19:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sevilla FC win on 2026-03-01?$10.00Mar 1, 18:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill FC København win on 2026-03-01?$10.00Mar 1, 18:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gaziantep FK win on 2026-03-01?$10.00Mar 1, 18:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Antalyaspor win on 2026-03-01?$10.00Mar 1, 18:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw?$10.00Mar 1, 18:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US strike Iran next?$10.00Mar 1, 18:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hillary say "Island" during her Epstein testimony?$15.00Mar 1, 18:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)?$8.00Mar 1, 18:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$5.00Mar 1, 18:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $56.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 28, 16:43 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 4, 14:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.