Thoughtful-Synod
0x4081a3a3f7ecc291b8f479c3fcfeda8333d89e87
Wallet digest
Activity score
45/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
8
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-8.70
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 53°F or higher on March 17?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Jimmy Patronis win by 20-25%?
656 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2025$0.00
$-1.01
- YES
Will Lina Mendoni be next Greek President?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 29, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the HBO documentary identify Dorian Nakamoto as Satoshi?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 15, 2024$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will FDP win the most seats in the next German election?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the Republican candidate win Iowa by 7.0-8.0%?
189 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-1.89
- NO
Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross less than $105m opening weekend?
160 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 7, 2024$0.00
$-0.80
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany?$103.19Apr 17, 06:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany?$103.41Apr 17, 06:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jimmy Patronis win by 20-25%?$1.01Apr 12, 17:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 53°F or higher on March 17?$1.00Mar 22, 17:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lina Mendoni be next Greek President?$1.00Feb 4, 07:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill FDP win the most seats in the next German election?$1.00Jan 16, 09:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting?$1.00Jan 16, 09:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican candidate win Iowa by 7.0-8.0%? $1.89Nov 13, 11:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross less than $105m opening weekend?$0.80Oct 6, 07:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the HBO documentary identify Dorian Nakamoto as Satoshi?$1.00Oct 6, 07:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 10
- Avg trade size
- $21.53
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 6, 07:09 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 17, 06:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".