Lumpy-Derivation
0x408ddbb369e3a464d1129ba156d2843fcdccb83d
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
101
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-3.9K
Realised
$301.96
Win rate
53%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 101- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET
1187 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-59.37
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET
746 shares @ 15.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 29, 2026$0.00
$-117.30
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 29, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET
625 shares @ 7.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 29, 2026$0.00
$-45.06
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET
588 shares @ 8.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 24, 2026$0.00
$-50.97
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 5AM ET
406 shares @ 26.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 24, 2026$0.00
$-106.89
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 23, 7AM ET
387 shares @ 25.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-98.85
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 2AM ET
380 shares @ 36.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-138.03
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 1AM ET
367 shares @ 4.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-17.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET
340 shares @ 16.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 24, 2026$0.00
$-56.03
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET
333 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 24, 2026$0.00
$-79.94
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$0.10Jan 31, 00:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 1PM ET$2.90Jan 30, 18:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 1PM ET$2.90Jan 30, 18:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - January 30, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET$7.90Jan 30, 06:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - January 30, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET$15.20Jan 30, 06:40 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET$0.79Jan 30, 06:13 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET$1.80Jan 30, 06:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET$18.82Jan 30, 06:05 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - January 30, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET$40.37Jan 30, 05:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - January 30, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET$11.78Jan 30, 05:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - January 30, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET$12.18Jan 30, 05:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - January 30, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET$4.47Jan 30, 05:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - January 30, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET$6.69Jan 30, 05:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET$8.42Jan 30, 05:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET$8.72Jan 30, 05:20 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - January 29, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET$37.46Jan 30, 04:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - January 29, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET$36.35Jan 30, 04:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET$39.27Jan 30, 03:50 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET$17.69Jan 30, 03:43 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET$55.48Jan 30, 03:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
42/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
53% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $15.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 30, 00:43 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 31, 00:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.