Cautious-Definition
0x4093d0e7cfde7ebb3c93a373364e1966df4d52d3
Wallet digest
Activity score
43/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
28
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-316.03
Realised
$-1.67
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 28- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30?
988 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 15, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Pfizer (PFE) beat quarterly earnings?
739 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-16.00
- YES
Will Starbucks say "Comparable Sales" during earnings call?
373 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 2 and 6 seconds on October 30, 2025?
298 shares @ 36.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 30, 2025$0.00
$-110.00
- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $3,700 October 20-26?
223 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 27, 2025$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Xi events on October 29?
208 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?
195 shares @ 48.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 19, 2025$0.00
$-95.00
- NO
Will Israel strike Lebanon on October 30?
144 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Cintas (CTAS) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?
111 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 1, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 4?$0.14Nov 4, 14:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?$0.49Nov 4, 14:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump’s approval rating be between 43.5 and 43.9 on November 7 2025?$0.34Nov 4, 14:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?$0.41Nov 4, 14:04 UTC
- TRADESELLRussia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?$0.50Nov 4, 14:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on November 4?$0.27Nov 4, 14:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold close between $3400 and $3500 at the end of 2025?$0.50Nov 4, 14:03 UTC
- TRADESELLDAI depeg by December 31?$0.60Nov 4, 14:03 UTC
- TRADESELLUSDS depeg by December 31?$0.63Nov 4, 14:03 UTC
- TRADESELLBank of Japan decreases interest rates after December 2025 meeting?$0.54Nov 4, 14:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold close between $3600 and $3700 at the end of 2025?$0.54Nov 4, 14:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold close between $3800 and $3900 at the end of 2025?$0.70Nov 4, 14:03 UTC
- TRADESELLUSD1 depeg by December 31?$0.71Nov 4, 14:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025?$0.79Nov 4, 14:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold close between $3700 and $3800 at the end of 2025?$0.82Nov 4, 14:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?$0.83Nov 4, 14:03 UTC
- TRADESELLGHO depeg by December 31?$0.78Nov 4, 14:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?$0.82Nov 4, 14:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?$0.88Nov 4, 14:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Zohran Mamdani win by 10-20%?$0.92Nov 4, 14:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $1.65
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 4, 06:21 UTC
- Last active
- Nov 4, 14:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".