Definitive-Fear
0x409c960a774d9f1347bcb065e3aa776747a89ac8
Wallet digest
Activity score
95/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
39
Open notional
$355.72
Total PnL
$-375.63
Realised
$74.06
Win rate
100%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 39- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
187 shares @ 80.3¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$169.13
$19.13
- YES
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
29300 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$131.85
$-18.63
- YES
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?
68 shares @ 70.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$45.22
$-2.38
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?
200 shares @ 5.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$9.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?
130 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.52
$-9.88
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?
2510 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-23.86
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?
1700 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-10.20
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?
1670 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-10.02
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?
1470 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-8.82
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?
1200 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-20.12
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?$48.31Jun 14, 14:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?$2.17Jun 14, 14:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?$8.21Jun 14, 09:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?$18.55Jun 14, 09:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?$9.60Jun 14, 09:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?$9.88Jun 14, 08:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 14, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?$9.62Jun 13, 21:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?$18.00Jun 13, 16:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?$5.88Jun 13, 15:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?$0.17Jun 13, 15:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?$4.35Jun 13, 15:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?$10.04Jun 13, 15:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?$20.07Jun 13, 05:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?$30.70Jun 13, 05:55 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 13, 00:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?$126.96Jun 12, 21:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?$20.95Jun 12, 16:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?$20.31Jun 12, 14:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?$20.19Jun 12, 14:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $11.09
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 9, 07:44 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 14, 14:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.