Clever-Jealousy-Artist
0x40b56efcf16fd4776b7728fe6c4be7d127826b5f
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
48
Open notional
$1.4K
Total PnL
$-2.2K
Realised
$-97.98
Win rate
0%
28 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 48- YES
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
1153 shares @ 56.4¢·now 39.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$449.62
$-200.38
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
267 shares @ 75.0¢·now 97.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$258.53
$58.53
- YES
Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?
2296 shares @ 16.1¢·now 8.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$195.14
$-174.86
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
781 shares @ 12.8¢·now 12.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$94.14
$-5.86
- YES
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026?
140 shares @ 71.5¢·now 47.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$66.48
$-33.52
- YES
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?
425 shares @ 23.5¢·now 12.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$51.00
$-49.00
- YES
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
696 shares @ 4.3¢·now 5.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$38.65
$8.65
- YES
Will the Republican Party hold between 205 and 209 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
346 shares @ 14.5¢·now 11.2¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$38.55
$-11.45
- YES
Will the Republican Party hold between 210 and 214 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
331 shares @ 15.1¢·now 8.8¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$28.96
$-21.04
- YES
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
273 shares @ 11.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$25.91
$-4.09
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Aug 19, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 18, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 16, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 14, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 12, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 11, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 10, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 9, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026?$100.00Aug 8, 23:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?$100.00Aug 8, 23:50 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 8, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 7, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 6, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 5, 02:31 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 4, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 3, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party hold between 205 and 209 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?$51.71Aug 2, 17:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
50/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 28 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
28 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $152.92
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 19, 22:20 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 19, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 28 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.