Wallet profile

Fumbling-Optimization

0x40c78f560579f593f2412fb8559ecdf944791d56

activity 73/100

Wallet digest

active

Activity score

73/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

17

Open notional

$4.8K

Total PnL

$-2.3K

Realised

$78.52

Win rate

50%

4 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 17

Recent activity

  • YIELD$0.45Jul 4, 00:17 UTC
  • YIELD$0.46Jul 3, 00:10 UTC
  • YIELD$0.48Jul 2, 00:18 UTC
  • YIELD$0.52Jul 1, 00:14 UTC
  • YIELD$0.44Jun 30, 00:17 UTC
  • YIELD$0.44Jun 29, 00:16 UTC
  • YIELD$0.44Jun 28, 00:16 UTC
  • YIELD$0.42Jun 27, 00:13 UTC
  • YIELD$0.42Jun 26, 00:17 UTC
  • YIELD$0.32Jun 25, 00:10 UTC
  • TRADEBUYWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.3KJun 24, 22:20 UTC
  • YIELD$0.30Jun 24, 00:11 UTC
  • TAKER_REBATE$4.50Jun 23, 00:14 UTC
  • YIELD$0.33Jun 23, 00:10 UTC
  • YIELD$0.35Jun 22, 00:16 UTC
  • YIELD$0.38Jun 21, 00:17 UTC
  • YIELD$0.41Jun 20, 00:11 UTC
  • YIELD$0.39Jun 19, 00:11 UTC
  • TRADEBUYWill Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$30.90Jun 18, 07:07 UTC
  • YIELD$0.40Jun 18, 00:17 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

11/100
read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

Thin resolved sample

Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.

PnL is mostly mark-to-market

Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.

High mirror risk

Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

50% win rate over 4 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

0/100
no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal
block

Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.

Resolved-only track record
review

4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage
missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk
missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity
missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation
missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution
missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity59 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence13 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry6 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk76 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time)
17
Avg trade size
$1.1K
Top category
—
Category concentration
0%
First seen
Jun 2, 19:53 UTC
Last active
Jul 4, 00:17 UTC
Win rate sample
4 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 00:00:10 UTC·src:Polymarket Data