Happy-Go-Lucky-Ruckus
0x40ca156c48611aed70e3a99d10977861e84ec471
Wallet digest
Activity score
34/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-2.7K
Realised
$-172.29
Win rate
9%
138 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET
701 shares @ 43.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026$0.00
$-306.07
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET
323 shares @ 49.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-160.00
- YES
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?
297 shares @ 61.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-182.60
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET
138 shares @ 51.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-71.03
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET
134 shares @ 58.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-79.13
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET
128 shares @ 46.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-59.87
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET
126 shares @ 51.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-65.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET
97 shares @ 48.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$0.00
$-46.73
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET
80 shares @ 55.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-44.05
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET
75 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-37.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET$36.98Jun 25, 22:39 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET$37.03Jun 25, 22:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET$13.17Jun 25, 22:07 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down on June 26?$12.89Jun 25, 22:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Germany win on 2026-06-25?$184.71Jun 25, 17:54 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET$1.92Jun 25, 16:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET$1.03Jun 25, 15:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET$1.03Jun 25, 15:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET$1.04Jun 25, 15:25 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET$2.04Jun 25, 15:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET$1.04Jun 25, 15:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on June 26?$10.35Jun 25, 15:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$1.04Jun 25, 14:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET$1.03Jun 25, 14:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET$1.04Jun 25, 14:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$1.03Jun 25, 14:09 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$3.85Jun 25, 13:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$1.05Jun 25, 13:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET$1.03Jun 25, 03:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET$1.03Jun 25, 01:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
67/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
9% win rate over 138 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 31/100.
138 closed markets, 9% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $19.98
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 23, 14:05 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 25, 22:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 138 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.