Variable-Drawing
0x40cb615aa4b329ec478a38cb9e4908e10a984dbc
Wallet digest
Activity score
56/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
45
Open notional
$135.01
Total PnL
$-828.77
Realised
$4.85
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 45- YES
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?
45 shares @ 88.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$45.45
$5.45
- NO
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?
37 shares @ 94.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$37.33
$2.24
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
143 shares @ 28.0¢·now 16.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$22.79
$-17.21
- NO
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?
17 shares @ 86.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 1, 2025$17.44
$2.44
- YES
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
143 shares @ 14.0¢·now 7.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.50
$-9.50
- YES
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.50
$0.50
- YES
Will Trump’s approval rating be <43.5% on August 22?
20000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 22, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting?
18333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025$0.00
$-49.98
- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?
15833 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-34.98
- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
5511 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-76.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jun 5, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 4, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 3, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 2, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 1, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 31, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 30, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 29, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 28, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 27, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 26, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 25, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 24, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 23, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 22, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 21, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 20, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 19, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 18, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 17, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 17, 00:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 5, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".