Grandiose-Cosset
0x40d0e27e1c7c5ede147a9de4b60b3ae7207b5eb6
Wallet digest
Activity score
29/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
136
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-324.09
Realised
$-149.55
Win rate
0%
37 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 136- YES
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?
150 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.59
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?
150 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.59
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?
150 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.59
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?
150 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.59
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?
150 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.59
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?
120 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-2.07
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?
120 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-2.07
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?
120 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-2.07
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?
120 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-2.07
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?
120 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-2.07
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 10?$4.98Apr 11, 03:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Austin be 66°F or higher on April 11?$4.97Apr 11, 03:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on April 11?$4.94Apr 11, 03:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Denver be 60°F or higher on April 11?$4.95Apr 11, 03:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chicago be 46°F or higher on April 11?$4.93Apr 11, 03:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Denver be 68°F or higher on April 12?$4.92Apr 11, 03:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Houston be 74°F or higher on April 12?$4.85Apr 11, 03:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C or higher on April 11?$4.85Apr 11, 03:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Houston be 76°F or higher on April 11?$4.82Apr 11, 03:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 16°C or below on April 10?$4.99Apr 11, 01:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C or below on April 10?$4.99Apr 11, 00:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C or below on April 10?$4.99Apr 11, 00:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on April 10?$4.99Apr 11, 00:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 10?$4.99Apr 10, 23:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on April 10?$4.99Apr 10, 22:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C or higher on April 10?$4.99Apr 10, 21:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on April 10?$4.99Apr 10, 19:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 10?$5.00Apr 10, 19:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on April 10?$4.99Apr 10, 19:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on April 10?$4.99Apr 10, 19:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 37 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
26 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.
37 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 26
- Avg trade size
- $4.87
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 10, 06:56 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 11, 03:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 37 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.