0x40d3b984a22fbb7e2ee3f5e9e49b72a54f4c259b
0x40d3b984a22fbb7e2ee3f5e9e49b72a54f4c259b
Wallet digest
Activity score
45/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
13
Open notional
$5.52
Total PnL
$-72.71
Realised
$-24.59
Win rate
17%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- NO
Military action against Iran ends on March 16, 2026?
6 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$5.50
$0.01
- NO
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?
3 shares @ 75.0¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.01
$-1.99
- YES
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?
466 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 5, 2026$0.00
$-10.84
- YES
US strikes Iran by January 27, 2026?
458 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.50
- YES
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?
289 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.93
- YES
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?
243 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.85
- YES
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?
95 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-10.50
- YES
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
37 shares @ 8.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
33 shares @ 9.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?
31 shares @ 4.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
Recent activity
- TRADESELLMilitary action against Iran ends on March 22, 2026?$0.63Mar 18, 05:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?$1.19Mar 18, 05:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Podemos Perú (PP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election?$1.32Mar 18, 05:23 UTC
- TRADESELLMilitary action against Iran ends on March 26, 2026?$1.37Mar 18, 05:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?$1.90Mar 18, 05:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?$2.00Mar 18, 05:23 UTC
- TRADESELLMilitary action against Iran ends on March 20, 2026?$2.01Mar 18, 05:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?$2.10Mar 18, 05:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?$2.01Mar 18, 05:23 UTC
- TRADESELLMilitary action against Iran ends on March 27, 2026?$1.69Mar 18, 05:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?$2.76Mar 18, 05:23 UTC
- TRADESELLFed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?$3.76Mar 18, 05:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?$3.98Mar 18, 05:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?$4.48Mar 18, 05:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?$5.26Mar 18, 05:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?$5.87Mar 18, 05:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?$5.92Mar 18, 05:23 UTC
- TRADESELLFed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?$6.35Mar 18, 05:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?$7.15Mar 18, 05:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?$11.02Mar 18, 05:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $2.06
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 17, 23:11 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 18, 05:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.