Treasured-Shrimp
0x40d5c8198731409fb6e0a9b881f4fb375f561c74
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
194
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-12.6K
Realised
$634.56
Win rate
94%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 194- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7AM ET
24200 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026$0.00
$-231.81
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 21?
13265 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026$0.00
$-92.84
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6PM ET
9362 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026$0.00
$-470.88
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11AM ET
8353 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 14, 2026$0.00
$-8.35
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6AM ET
6611 shares @ 7.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$0.00
$-477.93
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7AM ET
6184 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-168.05
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 23?
5118 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2026$0.00
$-31.88
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 29?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down on May 18?
4224 shares @ 5.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-239.03
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2PM ET
3590 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 14, 2026$0.00
$-466.79
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET$9.21Jul 29, 18:05 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$0.00Jul 28, 08:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$14.52Jul 28, 08:28 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$0.00Jul 28, 08:26 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$20.00Jul 28, 08:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$10.35Jul 28, 08:21 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$13.95Jul 28, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$11.17Jul 28, 08:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET$10.29Jul 28, 08:06 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET$12.13Jul 28, 07:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET$10.24Jul 28, 07:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET$15.50Jul 28, 06:50 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$0.00Jul 28, 06:37 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET$15.57Jul 28, 06:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET$15.27Jul 28, 06:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$2.14Jul 28, 06:34 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET$16.25Jul 28, 06:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET$12.34Jul 28, 06:05 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET$13.10Jul 28, 06:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET$7.25Jul 28, 05:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
41/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
94% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $19.76
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 20:58 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 18:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.