Fatherly-Faucet
0x40deb84bcb26efc69f129d981a6557b4495a0e3a
Wallet digest
Activity score
33/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-15.9K
Realised
$-7.2K
Win rate
8%
129 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?
4000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 6, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?
3666 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 6, 2026$0.00
$-18.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?
3120 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 4, 2026$0.00
$-9.00
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?
2498 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-16.88
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?
2263 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 27, 2026$0.00
$-30.25
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?
2162 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9AM ET
2059 shares @ 25.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$0.00
$-526.76
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?
2038 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?
1604 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$0.00
$-24.25
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$1.06Jul 26, 13:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET$1.07Jul 26, 13:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET$2.11Jul 26, 13:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$1.06Jul 26, 13:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$1.07Jul 26, 13:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET$1.07Jul 26, 13:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance AND Lionel Messi: 1+ goals + assists AND Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 AND Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals + assists AND Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?$4.99Jul 19, 02:26 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET$0.00Jul 11, 15:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET$1.06Jul 11, 15:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET$1.07Jul 11, 15:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$1.06Jul 11, 14:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET$1.07Jul 11, 14:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET$1.07Jul 11, 14:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET$2.12Jul 11, 14:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET$2.13Jul 11, 14:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET$1.07Jul 11, 14:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET$1.06Jul 11, 14:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET$2.11Jul 11, 14:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET$1.07Jul 11, 14:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET$2.10Jul 11, 14:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
8% win rate over 129 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.
129 closed markets, 8% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $1.95
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 11, 05:48 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 26, 13:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 129 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.