Distinct-Expansion
0x40f365faf283bc5de057ad78ce2512c327133f9f
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
125
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-426.98
Realised
$52.29
Win rate
100%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 125- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 23?
1507 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026$0.00
$-4.50
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 22?
1167 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 21?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 21?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 21?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 21?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 22?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 22?
868 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 23?
815 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 23?
583 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 26?$6.06Mar 27, 05:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 25?$7.06Mar 27, 05:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 25?$16.04Mar 27, 05:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 24?$17.62Mar 27, 05:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET$4.00Mar 24, 01:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET$6.00Mar 24, 01:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET$18.00Mar 24, 01:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$3.00Mar 24, 01:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$4.00Mar 24, 01:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$15.00Mar 24, 01:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET$10.00Mar 24, 01:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET$6.00Mar 24, 01:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET$2.37Mar 24, 01:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET$7.00Mar 24, 01:36 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET$0.72Mar 24, 01:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET$4.00Mar 24, 01:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET$7.00Mar 24, 01:32 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET$12.19Mar 24, 01:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET$7.00Mar 24, 01:30 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET$14.84Mar 24, 01:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
31/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $9.08
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 23, 23:52 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 27, 05:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.