Tremendous-Referendum
0x40fd04ada25e7506e448b8b8defedbc3a9e47765
Wallet digest
Activity score
37/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
16
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-3.3K
Realised
$-11.45
Win rate
20%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 14?
2347 shares @ 96.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 14, 2026$0.00
$-2.3K
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 11?
576 shares @ 85.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026$0.00
$-489.21
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 20?
439 shares @ 27.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026$0.00
$-118.87
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 26?
318 shares @ 98.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026$0.00
$-312.16
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 2?
71 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026$0.00
$-6.43
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on April 4?
53 shares @ 18.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-9.86
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 2?
45 shares @ 29.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026$0.00
$-13.39
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 23?
35 shares @ 40.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2026$0.00
$-14.19
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 13?
20 shares @ 38.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-7.65
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 29?
10 shares @ 35.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-3.50
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on July 19?$200.99Jul 19, 16:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or below on July 19?$551.80Jul 19, 16:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on July 18?$232.87Jul 18, 15:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on July 18?$232.65Jul 17, 11:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or below on July 19?$550.98Jul 17, 11:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on July 19?$200.80Jul 17, 11:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C or below on July 11?$984.42Jul 11, 16:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C or below on July 11?$983.48Jul 10, 12:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or below on July 8?$495.74Jul 8, 15:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on July 8?$487.75Jul 8, 15:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on July 8?$487.29Jul 7, 02:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or below on July 8?$495.27Jul 7, 02:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C or below on July 6?$824.25Jul 6, 16:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 25°C or below on July 6?$158.31Jul 6, 16:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C or below on July 6?$823.47Jul 5, 07:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 25°C or below on July 6?$158.16Jul 5, 07:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on July 4?$239.00Jul 4, 16:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on July 4?$31.71Jul 4, 16:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C or below on July 4?$446.11Jul 4, 15:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or higher on July 4?$11.56Jul 4, 15:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
24 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 24
- Avg trade size
- $367.75
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 26, 16:21 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 19, 16:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.