Sophisticated-Burning
0x411564c27c34d1f0d680482a030072ba6a6f862d
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
16
Open notional
$8.60
Total PnL
$-54.49
Realised
$0.75
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- YES
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
38 shares @ 16.0¢·now 16.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$6.08
$-0.02
- YES
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
33 shares @ 18.0¢·now 6.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.05
$-3.95
- YES
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?
15 shares @ 20.0¢·now 3.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.47
$-2.53
- UP
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 14?
67 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 14, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?
57 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-9.10
- YES
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?
49 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 15, 2026$0.00
$-4.90
- YES
Will the US strike Iran next?
34 shares @ 32.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-11.00
- YES
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
29 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-6.30
- YES
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?
21 shares @ 4.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the US next strike Iran on January 15, 2026 (ET)?
17 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.64
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUkraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? $3.00Jan 15, 10:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by January 31?$1.00Jan 15, 10:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran strike on Qatar by January 31, 2026?$3.00Jan 15, 10:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?$1.00Jan 15, 10:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US strike Iran next?$11.00Jan 15, 10:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?$3.80Jan 15, 10:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?$6.40Jan 15, 10:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?$2.70Jan 15, 10:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?$4.90Jan 15, 10:17 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?$36.78Jan 15, 10:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$6.10Jan 14, 20:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?$2.00Jan 14, 20:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during the Signing Ceremony on Wednesday?$1.00Jan 14, 20:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-14?$1.00Jan 14, 20:47 UTC
- TRADESELLUS forces enter Iran by January 31?$3.75Jan 14, 20:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US next strike Iran on January 14, 2026 (ET)?$6.72Jan 14, 20:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US not strike another country before 2027?$0.00Jan 14, 20:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US next strike Iran on January 15, 2026 (ET)?$2.64Jan 14, 15:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US next strike Iran on January 14, 2026 (ET)?$5.00Jan 14, 15:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 14?$2.00Jan 14, 15:48 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $8.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 9, 14:07 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 15, 10:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".