Vacant-Fishery
0x4131bd4f0dc4f4e8d065ccb09a1f875072f9d591
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
42
Open notional
$925.99
Total PnL
$52.94
Realised
$70.73
Win rate
76%
21 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 42- NO
Will Trump say "Warren Buffett" during remarks in Las Vegas?
289 shares @ 76.0¢·now 71.0¢·exp Aug 5, 2026$205.19
$-14.57
- YES
Will China's CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in July 2026?
240 shares @ 24.9¢·now 37.0¢·exp Aug 10, 2026$88.80
$29.10
- NO
Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by August 6?
75 shares @ 73.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$67.13
$12.38
- YES
Will voter turnout be between 60% and 70% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?
137 shares @ 22.7¢·now 49.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$66.90
$35.87
- YES
Will Yariv Levin win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?
162 shares @ 5.0¢·now 30.9¢·exp Oct 26, 2026$50.06
$42.02
- YES
Will Amir Ohana win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?
160 shares @ 25.1¢·now 29.5¢·exp Oct 26, 2026$47.20
$7.00
- YES
Will China's CPI increase by between 0.9% and 1.0% over the 12 month period ending in July 2026?
180 shares @ 39.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp Aug 10, 2026$45.90
$-24.30
- NO
Will China's CPI increase by between 1.1% and 1.2% over the 12 month period ending in July 2026?
63 shares @ 56.0¢·now 68.0¢·exp Aug 10, 2026$43.06
$7.60
- YES
Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by December 31?
87 shares @ 69.4¢·now 44.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$38.46
$-22.21
- YES
Will Daniil Medvedev Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?
50 shares @ 63.0¢·now 73.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$36.75
$5.25
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Spotify say "Premium" 20+ times during earnings call?$10.00Aug 4, 16:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Spotify say "Premium" 20+ times during earnings call?$13.45Aug 4, 13:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spotify say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 10+ times during earnings call?$1.34Aug 4, 12:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spotify say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 10+ times during earnings call?$0.31Aug 4, 12:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Warren Buffett" during remarks in Las Vegas?$41.40Aug 4, 11:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Stock Market" during remarks in Las Vegas?$1.74Aug 4, 10:46 UTC
- TRADESELLJeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by August 6?$54.75Aug 4, 05:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYJeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by August 6?$109.50Aug 4, 03:59 UTC
- TRADESELLJeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by December 31?$40.95Aug 4, 03:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYJeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by December 31?$28.00Aug 4, 03:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYJeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by December 31?$75.29Aug 4, 03:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Warren Buffett" during remarks in Las Vegas?$45.00Aug 4, 03:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Warren Buffett" during remarks in Las Vegas?$31.74Aug 4, 02:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jung Hoo Lee be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline?$141.49Aug 4, 02:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Shea Langeliers be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline?$588.02Aug 4, 02:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 1?$0.00Aug 4, 01:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on August 1?$0.00Aug 4, 01:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Stupid Song - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of August 8?$0.00Aug 4, 01:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of August 8?$0.00Aug 4, 01:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Boston - Stella Lefty" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of August 8?$0.00Aug 4, 01:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
41/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
76% win rate over 21 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
21 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $49.56
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 3, 03:53 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 4, 16:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 21 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.