Smart-Sweatsuit
0x4138065c69134ea0fcfd13f8664a818dafbf6a24
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
126
Open notional
$4.4K
Total PnL
$-32.0K
Realised
$-173.72
Win rate
29%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 126- YES
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?
1124 shares @ 83.3¢·now 88.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$992.76
$56.40
- NO
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
3307 shares @ 31.0¢·now 24.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$793.64
$-232.52
- YES
Will fewer than 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?
458 shares @ 86.9¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$455.81
$57.81
- NO
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.90 and $3.20 on July 31, 2026?
510 shares @ 79.6¢·now 84.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$428.92
$22.48
- NO
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?
593 shares @ 63.1¢·now 56.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$334.75
$-39.14
- NO
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.00 and $2.30 on July 31, 2026?
317 shares @ 89.9¢·now 96.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$303.86
$19.31
- NO
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?
405 shares @ 70.1¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$257.17
$-26.78
- NO
Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $6.00 on July 31, 2026?
167 shares @ 94.9¢·now 96.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$160.07
$1.92
- NO
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $7.00 on July 31, 2026?
400 shares @ 38.0¢·now 37.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$150.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.60 and $2.90 on July 31, 2026?
288 shares @ 32.0¢·now 43.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$123.75
$31.59
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on July 31, 2026?$1.56Jul 21, 19:00 UTC
- REWARD$1.98Jul 21, 18:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on July 31, 2026?$39.98Jul 21, 17:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 24, 2026?$25.92Jul 21, 15:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 24, 2026?$28.04Jul 21, 15:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $7.00 on July 31, 2026?$155.77Jul 21, 15:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026?$12.21Jul 21, 14:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$47.52Jul 21, 13:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$16.00Jul 21, 13:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.90 and $3.20 on July 31, 2026?$32.61Jul 21, 09:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.90 and $3.20 on July 31, 2026?$62.95Jul 21, 09:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.90 and $3.20 on July 31, 2026?$48.88Jul 21, 09:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.90 and $3.20 on July 31, 2026?$148.46Jul 21, 09:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.20 and $3.50 on July 31, 2026?$28.73Jul 21, 07:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn H200 Index be at least $6.00 on July 31, 2026?$70.98Jul 20, 17:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn H200 Index be at least $6.00 on July 31, 2026?$11.49Jul 20, 17:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn H200 Index be at least $6.00 on July 31, 2026?$38.00Jul 20, 17:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn H200 Index be at least $6.00 on July 31, 2026?$38.00Jul 20, 17:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$68.00Jul 20, 17:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$116.00Jul 20, 16:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
29% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $68.95
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 18, 06:22 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 19:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.