Ornate-Mistake
0x4149a85053475b6d16c5f6f355c13efca07a4632
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
21
Open notional
$59.46
Total PnL
$-14.24
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- NO
Will Trump meet with Putin by November 30?
23 shares @ 22.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$22.73
$17.73
- NO
Trump x Putin Meeting in Hungary by Dec 31?
17 shares @ 17.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$17.22
$14.22
- NO
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
4 shares @ 71.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$4.23
$1.23
- NO
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?
4 shares @ 83.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$3.61
$0.61
- NO
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31?
3 shares @ 82.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$3.29
$0.59
- YES
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
33 shares @ 18.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.17
$-2.83
- NO
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?
3 shares @ 70.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$2.86
$0.86
- NO
Maduro out in 2025?
2 shares @ 85.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$2.35
$0.35
- YES
Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by October 31?
400 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-4.00
- NO
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 31?
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUkraine hits Moscow by December 31?$1.00Oct 24, 12:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYChina coup attempt in 2025?$2.00Oct 19, 15:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYXi Jinping out in 2025?$3.00Oct 19, 15:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYUkraine Tomahawk missile strike by December 31?$4.00Oct 19, 15:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump x Putin Meeting in Hungary by Dec 31?$3.00Oct 19, 15:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by December 31?$2.00Oct 19, 15:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by October 31?$4.00Oct 19, 15:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31?$4.00Oct 19, 15:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Putin by November 30?$5.00Oct 19, 15:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?$2.00Oct 12, 18:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYNATO x Russia military clash by March 31, 2026?$3.00Oct 12, 18:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31?$5.00Oct 12, 18:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael withdraws from Gaza in 2025?$3.00Oct 12, 16:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?$3.00Oct 12, 16:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hamas release any more hostages by October 31?$2.00Oct 12, 16:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 13?$4.00Oct 12, 16:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Lyman by December 31?$2.70Oct 7, 13:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?$4.00Oct 7, 13:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?$2.00Oct 7, 13:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYXi Jinping out in 2025?$2.00Oct 7, 13:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 26
- Avg trade size
- $2.83
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 7, 13:26 UTC
- Last active
- Oct 24, 12:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.