Raw-Drinking
0x414c5a7cbb6b5ba1e9f4698df5bdf9aa8549e621
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
41
Open notional
$112.62
Total PnL
$-94.75
Realised
$-5.57
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 41- NO
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 13?
16 shares @ 71.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$16.27
$4.63
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 14?
15 shares @ 68.0¢·now 67.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$9.85
$-0.15
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on July 13?
12 shares @ 51.0¢·now 77.5¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$9.16
$3.13
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 34°C or higher on July 13?
7 shares @ 80.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$7.19
$1.42
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on July 13?
8 shares @ 74.0¢·now 84.5¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$6.84
$0.85
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on July 13?
8 shares @ 70.0¢·now 85.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$6.58
$1.16
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 14?
8 shares @ 69.0¢·now 71.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$6.02
$0.17
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on July 13?
9 shares @ 62.0¢·now 64.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$5.66
$0.18
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 14?
8 shares @ 77.0¢·now 72.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$5.52
$-0.38
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 15?
8 shares @ 73.0¢·now 70.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$5.47
$-0.23
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 15?$5.78Jul 13, 07:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 13?$5.70Jul 13, 06:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on July 13?$5.59Jul 13, 06:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on July 13?$3.65Jul 13, 06:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on July 13?$3.67Jul 13, 05:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on July 13?$5.15Jul 13, 05:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on July 13?$5.61Jul 13, 05:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on July 13?$3.76Jul 13, 05:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on July 13?$3.23Jul 13, 04:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on July 13?$5.59Jul 13, 04:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 37°C on July 14?$5.49Jul 13, 04:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be 87°F or below on July 14?$0.05Jul 13, 04:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on July 13?$5.52Jul 13, 03:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on July 13?$5.50Jul 13, 01:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on July 13?$5.50Jul 13, 01:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 13?$4.62Jul 13, 01:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on July 13?$2.69Jul 13, 00:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 13?$9.74Jul 13, 00:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 13?$5.47Jul 12, 23:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 13?$7.46Jul 12, 23:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $4.77
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 12, 15:08 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 13, 07:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.