Oily-Cartoon
0x414e3b643b463c2e92a6666855a66cb8bf7b144e
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
169
Open notional
$320.20
Total PnL
$-113.96
Realised
$-41.98
Win rate
27%
84 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 169- NO
Will Solana reach $90 in July?
10 shares @ 47.5¢·now 97.8¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$9.78
$5.03
- NO
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?
10 shares @ 51.4¢·now 97.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$9.70
$4.56
- NO
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
9 shares @ 58.5¢·now 93.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$8.74
$3.27
- NO
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1?
10 shares @ 51.0¢·now 67.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$6.70
$1.60
- NO
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
10 shares @ 41.0¢·now 62.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$6.25
$2.15
- YES
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?
10 shares @ 42.9¢·now 59.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$5.90
$1.61
- NO
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 66.6¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$4.97
$1.64
- YES
Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?
5 shares @ 63.5¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$4.97
$1.79
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
5 shares @ 48.0¢·now 99.2¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$4.96
$2.56
- NO
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
5 shares @ 67.4¢·now 98.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$4.95
$1.57
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?$2.20Jul 24, 02:10 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by August 15?$2.10Jul 24, 01:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by August 15?$2.20Jul 24, 00:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jay Collins finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?$1.80Jul 23, 23:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?$7.40Jul 23, 23:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Richard Carapaz be awarded the Polka Dot Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?$2.05Jul 23, 17:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Auyl win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?$0.47Jul 23, 14:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Auyl win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?$2.08Jul 23, 14:06 UTC
- TRADESELLOver $30M committed to the RipCars public sale?$3.25Jul 23, 13:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $30M committed to the RipCars public sale?$3.43Jul 23, 12:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $30M committed to the RipCars public sale?$3.43Jul 23, 12:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$4.21Jul 23, 11:17 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by August 15?$2.50Jul 23, 09:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by August 15?$2.50Jul 23, 07:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?$3.00Jul 23, 06:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$1.75Jul 23, 00:18 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by August 31?$2.75Jul 22, 20:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by August 31?$2.85Jul 22, 20:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill G2 Qualify to LAN BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2?$2.15Jul 22, 17:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026?$5.00Jul 22, 16:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
67/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
27% win rate over 84 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.
84 closed markets, 27% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $2.16
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 08:46 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 02:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 84 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.