Last-Pancreas-Mortise
0x414eab221414048bb393c4bc9257efd47a0f5139
Wallet digest
Activity score
43/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$17.70
Total PnL
$-2.7K
Realised
$-80.13
Win rate
0%
178 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 19?
2 shares @ 95.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$2.02
$0.10
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 19?
2 shares @ 94.0¢·now 99.9¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$2.02
$0.12
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on August 20?
2 shares @ 97.0¢·now 99.7¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$2.01
$0.05
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 20?
2 shares @ 98.0¢·now 98.5¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$1.99
$0.01
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on August 20?
2 shares @ 98.0¢·now 98.5¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$1.99
$0.01
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 20?
2 shares @ 95.0¢·now 97.0¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$1.96
$0.04
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on August 20?
2 shares @ 94.9¢·now 97.9¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$1.96
$0.06
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 20?
2 shares @ 94.0¢·now 94.0¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$1.90
$0.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 20?
2 shares @ 94.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$1.85
$-0.05
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET
202 shares @ 39.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$0.00
$-79.24
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on August 19?$1.25Aug 19, 22:23 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET$10.00Aug 19, 20:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET$2.94Aug 19, 20:29 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$10.00Aug 19, 13:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$2.45Aug 19, 13:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$1.01Aug 19, 13:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$0.83Aug 19, 13:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$6.85Aug 19, 13:10 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET$10.00Aug 19, 12:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET$1.80Aug 19, 12:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET$8.30Aug 19, 12:14 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET$21.05Aug 19, 11:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET$3.89Aug 19, 10:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET$9.59Aug 19, 10:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET$0.35Aug 19, 10:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET$1.85Aug 19, 10:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET$8.78Aug 19, 10:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET$2.83Aug 19, 07:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 20?$1.91Aug 19, 07:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 19?$1.92Aug 19, 07:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
61/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 178 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 28/100.
178 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $3.82
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 18, 15:20 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 19, 22:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 178 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.