0x4157a7d9e4906c78ea61cff30c998e4d1f1f28e7
0x4157a7d9e4906c78ea61cff30c998e4d1f1f28e7
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
12
Open notional
$3.55
Total PnL
$-2.9K
Realised
$12.0K
Win rate
67%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- NO
Will Ukraine formally cede Crimea, Luhansk, or Donetsk by May 31, 2022?
4 shares @ 74.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2022$3.55
$0.92
- NO
Will Marine Le Pen win 2nd place in the first round of the 2022 French presidential election?
36204 shares @ 15.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2022$0.00
$-5.6K
- NO
Will J. D. Vance win the Republican nomination for the 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio?
13148 shares @ 25.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2022$0.00
$-3.4K
- NO
Will Mehmet Oz win the Republican nomination for the 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania?
10266 shares @ 49.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2022$0.00
$-5.1K
- NO
Will Emmanuel Macron win the 2022 French presidential election?
2107 shares @ 19.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 25, 2022$0.00
$-410.71
- YES
Will Rodolfo Hernández win the 2022 Colombian presidential election?
417 shares @ 71.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 29, 2022$0.00
$-300.00
- YES
Will Matt Dolan win the Republican nomination for the 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio?
176 shares @ 21.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2022$0.00
$-38.53
- YES
Will Charles Herbster win the Republican gubernatorial nomination in the 2022 Nebraska election on May 10?
37 shares @ 68.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2022$0.00
$-25.00
- NO
Will Lisa Murkowski vote to confirm Ketanji Brown Jackson to SCOTUS by December 31, 2022?
14 shares @ 42.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2022$0.00
$-5.93
- YES
[From Nate Silver] Will there be a federal mask requirement on US domestic flights on November 8, 2022?
5 shares @ 17.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 8, 2022$0.00
$-0.95
Recent activity
No activity on record.
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- —
- Last active
- —
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.