Gargantuan-Mastoid
0x4173395ca913d2e1fa43993de6f7fae6b51a30de
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$1.57
Total PnL
$-121.75
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?
2 shares @ 92.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.57
$0.01
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8AM ET
2000 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 27, 2026$0.00
$-17.68
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 9AM ET
1200 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 27, 2026$0.00
$-7.10
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6AM ET
900 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 24, 2026$0.00
$-48.19
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3AM ET
800 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 24, 2026$0.00
$-26.20
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6PM ET
700 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-0.90
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7AM ET
400 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-18.20
- YES
Will All I Want For Christmas Is You - Mariah Carey be the #1 song on Spotify this week?
2 shares @ 92.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 12, 2025$0.00
$-1.90
- YES
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 7?
2 shares @ 93.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2025$0.00
$-1.60
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?$1.56Jul 20, 05:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.15Jul 20, 05:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$2.28Jul 20, 05:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$2.23Jun 22, 04:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.13Jun 22, 04:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill "The Great Divide - Noah Kahan" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of May 23?$1.16Jun 22, 03:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the People’s Bank of China not change rates in May?$2.31Jun 22, 03:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?$4.70Jun 22, 03:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Great Divide - Noah Kahan" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of May 23?$1.15May 17, 05:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the People’s Bank of China not change rates in May?$2.28May 17, 05:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?$4.25May 17, 05:45 UTC
- REDEEMNo change in Swiss National Bank policy rate after March Meeting?$1.33May 17, 05:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?$1.49May 17, 05:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?$3.51May 17, 05:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum reach $4,000 in March?$6.11May 17, 05:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Swiss National Bank policy rate after March Meeting?$1.30Mar 4, 06:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?$3.30Mar 4, 06:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $4,000 in March?$6.10Mar 4, 06:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?$1.40Mar 1, 00:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7AM ET$0.20Feb 28, 12:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 68/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $1.28
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 27, 13:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 05:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.