Offensive-Muscle
0x41743af6dd023a75e34c0a851d67fbe3427818fa
Wallet digest
Activity score
88/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$282.79
Total PnL
$-411.25
Realised
$276.61
Win rate
97%
34 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 2?
107 shares @ 9.1¢·now 36.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$38.69
$28.92
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 2?
41 shares @ 73.7¢·now 87.5¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$36.27
$5.71
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on July 2?
35 shares @ 92.8¢·now 79.3¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$27.47
$-4.70
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 2?
23 shares @ 9.1¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$20.95
$18.84
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on July 2?
21 shares @ 92.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$20.78
$1.57
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on July 2?
33 shares @ 42.7¢·now 46.1¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$15.04
$1.08
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on July 2?
24 shares @ 9.1¢·now 61.5¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$14.76
$12.58
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 3?
26 shares @ 35.2¢·now 41.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$10.77
$1.53
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on July 2?
40 shares @ 9.1¢·now 24.5¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$9.69
$6.09
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 3?
24 shares @ 9.1¢·now 39.5¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$9.53
$7.33
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 2?$10.00Jul 2, 12:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on July 1?$11.04Jul 2, 08:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 1?$5.59Jul 2, 08:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on July 1?$0.00Jul 2, 08:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be 76°F or higher on July 1?$0.00Jul 2, 08:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on July 1?$0.00Jul 2, 08:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on July 1?$0.00Jul 2, 08:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on July 1?$0.00Jul 2, 08:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on July 1?$0.00Jul 2, 08:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be 57°F or below on July 1?$0.00Jul 2, 08:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on July 1?$0.00Jul 2, 08:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on July 1?$0.00Jul 2, 08:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 1?$0.00Jul 2, 07:41 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Madrid on July 3?$3.52Jul 2, 07:38 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Beijing on July 2?$2.19Jul 2, 07:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on July 1?$0.00Jul 2, 07:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on July 1?$0.00Jul 2, 07:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Denver be 79°F or below on July 1?$0.00Jul 2, 07:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on July 1?$0.00Jul 2, 07:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 1?$0.00Jul 2, 07:33 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
73/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
97% win rate over 34 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
9 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.
34 closed markets, 97% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 9
- Avg trade size
- $1.87
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 2, 07:19 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 2, 12:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 34 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.