Carefree-Extinction
0x4181e14b4956c75458b08c8049288bb966a11e46
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
38
Open notional
$959.12
Total PnL
$-1.2K
Realised
$-141.17
Win rate
0%
28 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 38- NO
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $165 in August?
540 shares @ 52.0¢·now 51.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$275.59
$-5.48
- NO
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $4.50 in August?
328 shares @ 48.7¢·now 83.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$274.12
$114.12
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?
246 shares @ 13.0¢·now 60.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$148.92
$116.92
- NO
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $80 in August?
91 shares @ 66.0¢·now 58.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$52.66
$-7.26
- NO
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in August?
89 shares @ 44.0¢·now 52.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$46.77
$7.57
- NO
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $176 in August?
152 shares @ 32.2¢·now 29.2¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$44.26
$-4.54
- NO
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $174 in August?
164 shares @ 28.0¢·now 25.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$40.96
$-4.92
- NO
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $640 in August?
81 shares @ 57.0¢·now 50.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$40.56
$-5.68
- NO
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?
98 shares @ 48.0¢·now 36.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$35.28
$-11.76
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 6?
476 shares @ 56.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 6, 2026$0.00
$-270.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $640 in August?$47.04Aug 11, 13:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,000 in August?$40.74Aug 11, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $165 in August?$97.86Aug 11, 13:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $174 in August?$47.20Aug 11, 04:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $170 in August?$90.42Aug 7, 19:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $176 in August?$50.12Aug 6, 13:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $80 in August?$60.73Aug 4, 15:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?$48.02Aug 3, 13:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill STRC hit $100 by December 31?$42.47Aug 3, 13:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $600 in August?$55.84Aug 1, 06:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill STRC hit $100 by December 31?$51.36Aug 1, 06:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $580 in August?$5.80Aug 1, 06:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $170 in August?$42.67Aug 1, 06:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill STRC hit $100 by December 31?$46.89Aug 1, 06:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $170 in August?$69.82Aug 1, 06:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $155 in August?$5.48Aug 1, 05:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August?$55.94Aug 1, 04:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?$33.11Aug 1, 04:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $172 in August?$64.69Aug 1, 04:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $168 in August?$77.46Aug 1, 00:28 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 28 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
28 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $48.86
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 11:39 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 11, 13:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 28 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.