Grand-Orientation
0x4187c34d16be0b01e539fe46f04ff638316e8739
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
18
Open notional
$25.35
Total PnL
$-62.65
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- YES
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?
11 shares @ 94.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$10.05
$0.05
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
10 shares @ 80.0¢·now 95.9¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$9.59
$1.58
- YES
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?
6 shares @ 77.0¢·now 88.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$5.71
$0.71
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?
10 shares @ 96.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?
9 shares @ 55.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 19, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
7 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?
7 shares @ 95.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- NO
Lee Sang-min in jail by August 15?
7 shares @ 57.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2025$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will Abbott Laboratories (ABT) beat quarterly earnings?
7 shares @ 90.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 15, 2025$0.00
$-6.00
- NO
Will Elon tweet between 220 and 239 times September 5–12?
6 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 12, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$10.99Jun 1, 12:17 UTC
- REDEEMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?$10.96Jun 1, 06:10 UTC
- REDEEMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?$12.20May 31, 06:11 UTC
- REDEEMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?$11.96May 30, 06:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?$8.00May 29, 06:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?$10.00May 29, 06:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?$11.00May 29, 06:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?$8.00May 29, 06:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$10.00May 29, 06:39 UTC
- REDEEMIran closes its airspace by May 21?$5.56May 22, 06:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?$10.39May 21, 15:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?$10.20May 21, 15:46 UTC
- REDEEMIran closes its airspace by May 18?$10.37May 19, 06:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 18, 2026?$10.99May 19, 04:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 21?$5.00May 17, 10:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 18?$10.00May 17, 10:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 18, 2026?$10.04May 17, 10:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?$10.01May 17, 10:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?$10.02May 17, 10:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?$10.02May 17, 10:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 23
- Avg trade size
- $7.62
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 22, 10:18 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 1, 12:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".