0x419518f13614933bbfafc917c009cdba1edfd84f
0x419518f13614933bbfafc917c009cdba1edfd84f
Wallet digest
Activity score
76/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
14
Open notional
$10.82
Total PnL
$-11.43
Realised
$3.06
Win rate
89%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- YES
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
5 shares @ 45.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$5.00
$2.75
- YES
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?
5 shares @ 8.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$4.99
$4.59
- YES
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
15 shares @ 36.3¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$0.82
$-4.62
- UGO HUMBERT
BNP Paribas Open: Ugo Humbert vs Alex Michelsen
15 shares @ 23.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-3.58
- YES
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
10 shares @ 8.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-0.85
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?
10 shares @ 44.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-4.41
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?
10 shares @ 23.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.34
- YES
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?
5 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-0.90
- LAURA SIEGEMUND
BNP Paribas Open: Laura Siegemund vs Elina Svitolina
5 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-0.15
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
5 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill another country strike Iran by March 31?$2.40Mar 9, 19:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?$2.00Mar 9, 19:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?$1.05Mar 9, 06:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by April 30?$2.25Mar 9, 01:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?$1.30Mar 8, 22:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?$1.30Mar 8, 22:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?$1.46Mar 8, 22:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?$1.35Mar 8, 22:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?$1.30Mar 8, 22:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?$1.20Mar 8, 22:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?$1.20Mar 8, 22:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill another country strike Iran by March 31?$2.60Mar 8, 22:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran strike Israel on March 6?$0.90Mar 8, 22:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?$0.75Mar 8, 22:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?$0.55Mar 8, 21:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?$0.40Mar 8, 20:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?$0.35Mar 8, 20:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?$0.45Mar 8, 19:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?$0.45Mar 8, 19:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?$0.60Mar 8, 19:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
89% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.27
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 8, 07:02 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 9, 19:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.