Expert-Uncertainty
0x419ebab34391a228bc76d64e8f7fc1db1d4b8a4f
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-129.25
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
714 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?
681 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 2, 2026$0.00
$-14.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?
278 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 2, 2026$0.00
$-7.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 2°C on January 3?
252 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 3, 2026$0.00
$-80.72
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?
107 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 2, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?
50 shares @ 7.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 2, 2026$0.00
$-3.95
- YES
Will Gold close between $4700 and $4800 at the end of 2025?
48 shares @ 5.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.79
- YES
Will Gold close between $4600 and $4700 at the end of 2025?
34 shares @ 14.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?
21 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-2.71
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on December 25?
10 shares @ 26.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 25, 2025$0.00
$-2.58
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 2°C on January 3?$80.72Jan 2, 22:49 UTC
- TRADESELLRayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Getafe CF: Both Teams to Score$80.72Jan 2, 22:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYRayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Getafe CF: Both Teams to Score$20.20Jan 2, 20:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?$19.21Jan 2, 20:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?$9.00Dec 31, 16:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?$2.50Dec 31, 16:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?$7.50Dec 31, 16:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?$5.00Dec 31, 16:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?$5.00Dec 31, 16:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?$3.95Dec 31, 16:11 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 11AM ET$33.94Dec 31, 16:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 11AM ET$30.10Dec 31, 16:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold close between $4300 and $4400 at the end of 2025?$30.10Dec 31, 15:51 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 8AM ET$0.00Dec 31, 15:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 8AM ET$16.12Dec 31, 13:45 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 8AM ET$16.12Dec 31, 13:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 8AM ET$13.00Dec 31, 13:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold close between $4200 and $4300 at the end of 2025?$13.01Dec 31, 13:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spotify's top song on Christmas be 'All I Want For Christmas Is You'?$0.00Dec 25, 22:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spotify's top song on Christmas be 'All I Want For Christmas Is You'?$32.11Dec 25, 16:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 25
- Avg trade size
- $17.67
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 24, 03:19 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 2, 22:49 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".