Flamboyant-Anniversary
0x41be794158219fb12b69d1441a7bff2f5194486d
Wallet digest
Activity score
85/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
5
Open notional
$226.06
Total PnL
$0.05
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Trump out as President by July 31?
53 shares @ 99.7¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$52.81
$-0.03
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C or below on July 26?
50 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$49.98
$0.13
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
50 shares @ 99.4¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$49.63
$-0.07
- NO
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?
50 shares @ 98.7¢·now 98.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$49.02
$-0.33
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on July 26?
25 shares @ 98.0¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$24.62
$0.35
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President by July 31?$52.85Jul 25, 08:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?$49.35Jul 25, 08:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$49.71Jul 25, 08:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C or below on July 26?$49.86Jul 25, 08:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on July 26?$24.30Jul 25, 07:58 UTC
- REDEEMBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?$108.90Jul 8, 00:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$97.00Jul 1, 08:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$21.00Jul 1, 06:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$20.92Jun 24, 07:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$29.40Jun 24, 07:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 Week of June 8 2026?$50.00Jun 12, 23:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$64.32Jun 7, 03:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 Week of June 8 2026?$49.04Jun 7, 03:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?$104.05Jun 7, 03:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump speak to Yoon Suk Yeol in May?$132.00Jun 4, 06:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026?$85.00Jun 1, 11:49 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 22, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump speak to Yoon Suk Yeol in May?$131.21May 21, 02:53 UTC
- TRADESELLNetanyahu out by end of 2026?$130.92May 21, 02:36 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 21, 00:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
14 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 14
- Avg trade size
- $59.87
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 25, 00:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 08:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.