Golden-Panpipe
0x41e6de55cf3bd608b50952f681dfb562187466b7
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
192
Open notional
$1.8K
Total PnL
$263.74
Realised
$645.33
Win rate
63%
114 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 192- YES
Will Tukaka George Tamarua Ama win the Ngatangiia constituency in the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?
177 shares @ 92.3¢·now 96.6¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$171.17
$7.66
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on August 15?
89 shares @ 18.3¢·now 80.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$72.04
$55.65
- NO
Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%?
78 shares @ 37.4¢·now 89.5¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$69.65
$40.57
- NO
Will "The End of Oak Street" score at least 86 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
61 shares @ 78.3¢·now 95.3¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$58.16
$10.41
- NO
Will White House post 180-199 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
55 shares @ 73.1¢·now 77.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$42.63
$2.42
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on August 14?
36 shares @ 58.0¢·now 99.6¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$35.53
$14.83
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on August 15?
37 shares @ 84.0¢·now 95.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$35.39
$4.10
- NO
Will "The End of Oak Street" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 26m?
40 shares @ 75.0¢·now 87.0¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$35.06
$4.84
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on August 14?
31 shares @ 57.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$30.49
$13.11
- NO
Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?
30 shares @ 90.3¢·now 99.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$29.69
$2.60
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on August 15?$1.70Aug 14, 23:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on August 16?$5.82Aug 14, 23:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 15?$0.05Aug 14, 23:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on August 16?$1.51Aug 14, 23:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Zohran" or "Mamdani" during remarks in New York?$3.68Aug 14, 23:06 UTC
- MERGEWill fewer than 180 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 10-August 16?$2.08Aug 14, 23:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Supreme Court" during remarks in New York?$0.00Aug 14, 22:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Hottest" during remarks in New York?$50.00Aug 14, 22:55 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on August 15?$2.86Aug 14, 22:50 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on August 15?$2.86Aug 14, 22:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on August 15?$1.86Aug 14, 22:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on August 14?$1.00Aug 14, 22:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Stock Market" during remarks in New York?$8.02Aug 14, 22:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Oil," "Gas," or "Gasoline" during remarks in New York?$10.37Aug 14, 22:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on August 14?$27.97Aug 14, 22:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on August 15?$15.07Aug 14, 22:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill White House post 180-199 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?$20.00Aug 14, 22:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 14?$0.00Aug 14, 22:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during remarks in New York?$0.00Aug 14, 22:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?$6.30Aug 14, 22:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
79/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
63% win rate over 114 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
22 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.
114 closed markets, 63% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 22
- Avg trade size
- $6.73
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 14, 21:52 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 14, 23:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 114 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.