Embellished-Sandpaper
0x41ee8ed3ef600c8ddfe74504e45061b697cae0da
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
169
Open notional
$169.98
Total PnL
$-235.95
Realised
$-48.42
Win rate
0%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 169- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 15?
10 shares @ 9.1¢·now 70.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$7.05
$6.14
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 15?
10 shares @ 9.1¢·now 61.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$6.15
$5.24
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 15?
10 shares @ 9.1¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$5.05
$4.14
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 15?
10 shares @ 9.1¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$5.05
$4.14
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 15?
10 shares @ 9.1¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$5.05
$4.14
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 14?
10 shares @ 9.1¢·now 46.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$4.60
$3.69
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 15?
10 shares @ 9.1¢·now 46.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$4.60
$3.69
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on July 14?
10 shares @ 9.1¢·now 45.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$4.50
$3.59
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 14?
10 shares @ 9.1¢·now 43.5¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$4.35
$3.44
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on July 15?
10 shares @ 9.1¢·now 42.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$4.25
$3.34
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 15?$0.60Jul 14, 08:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C or below on July 14?$0.03Jul 14, 08:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on July 15?$0.01Jul 14, 08:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on July 15?$0.02Jul 14, 08:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on July 15?$0.18Jul 14, 08:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on July 15?$0.01Jul 14, 08:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on July 15?$0.01Jul 14, 08:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on July 15?$0.12Jul 14, 08:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on July 14?$0.02Jul 14, 08:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 14?$0.02Jul 14, 08:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 15?$0.31Jul 14, 08:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on July 15?$1.30Jul 14, 08:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on July 14?$0.13Jul 14, 08:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 15?$0.38Jul 14, 08:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on July 14?$0.11Jul 14, 07:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on July 14?$1.79Jul 14, 07:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 15?$1.20Jul 14, 07:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on July 15?$0.03Jul 14, 07:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on July 15?$0.37Jul 14, 07:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 15?$0.49Jul 14, 07:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $0.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 14, 05:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 08:27 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.